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Checking gains you a bet while betting out probably gains you nothing. on the other hand, if you are against an aggressive player who tends to call too often with weak pairs, then it is probably correct to bet. it is unlikely your opponent holds a pair of kings since an aggressive opponent probably would have raised either the flop or turn. he most likely would have raised a flush draw also at some point. in this situation, betting could be correct since you will win over 50% of the time when your opponent calls with a weak pair. the reasoning however is different. you check if you believe your opponent was on a draw, and you bet if you are reasonably confident, that your opponent will call with a hand weaker than a pair of kings. you need more than a 50% chance of winning when there is the risk that your opponent could raise with a better hand and you would call. in this case, you might lose two big bets against a very good hand and only win one bet against a weak hand, so you need more than a 50% chance of winning to justify this risk. for example, if you have roughly a 50% chance of winning a showdown but there is a 5% chance your opponent would raise and a 70% chance he would win when raising, you should just check and call rather than betting out. for example, you hold kq with a k548t board. you believe there is a 10% chance your opponent holds kq, a 30% chance of kj, a 20% chance of kt, and a 40% chance he would fold his other hands if you bet. you rarely would have a read this specific, but it is shown for example. should you check or bet? let's play this hand 10 times and look at the scenarios. if you bet first, four times you will win when he folds but gain nothing, once you will split and gain nothing, three times you will win a big bet, and twice you will lose two big bets when your opponent raises two pair. your net result is minus one big bet for an overall negative expectation. remember, the money in the pot is already yours if you have the best hand, so you don't include this in your analysis. now let's look at the results when you check, assuming that your opponent will bet any pair of kings and check anything else. four times you gain nothing when he checks, you split once, and you win a bet three times against kj. and you lose a bet two times against kt. the overall result is plus one bet for a positive expectation. it is actually more profitable to check this hand. it would be even more profitable if you induce some bluffs by getting your opponent to bet an inferior hand that he would have folded if you had bet. you had a 50% chance of winning a bet in a showdown, but because of the risk that your opponent might raise, you were better off just checking and calling in this example. things get more complicated if you take away the assumption that your opponent would bet any pair of kings. some opponents may not bet a hand that they would call with. in the example, some opponents might not bet kj if you check. in this case, you are better off betting out even though you have a negative expectation on. the bet. do you see why? you actually lose more by checking and calling if your opponent will only bet two pair. to summarize, there are several considerations you must make when betting into a lone opponent on the river with a good hand: probability that you will win in a showdown should be at least 50% ; probability that your opponent would raise and you would call probability that your opponent would bet a weaker hand if you check but fold this hand if you come out betting.
Statistically speaking, there exists only one best action a player can take for each of the possible hands he can receive versus each possible upcard the dealer may have.

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